Comentario de Reity de hoy ....

[H. LEIN]

Creo q ya os comenté ayer en otro post su postura, pero bueno,  os dejo su último reporter de hace unas horas ...


121% Long and Loving It

Stocks continue to bounce around in a range between 1973 (200 day moving average) and the record high at 2093. This has been in effect for the past two months. And it is true that all movement within that range is nothing but noise. What matters is when we break above or below.

Typically these sideways consolidation periods end with the market heading in the same direction it was going before the range bound action began. In this case, that would be to continue moving up to new highs above 2093. And that is what I am expecting.

Reity, what would cause us to break below the 200 day at 1973?

As we found in October, that break down can happen for no good reason at all. Gladly that mess got cleaned up quickly with new highs soon in hand. But typically you need a rash of bad news to make folks question the outlook for the economy.

Yes, recent economic data has been lighter than the past several months. Yet we should all know that +4-5% GDP from the past two quarters was not meant to last. So getting back to 2.5-3% growth is more the norm for the US economy and that is what the indicators point to ahead. That should be plenty good enough for us to explore new highs above 2100 and even 2200 later this year.

Add it all up and you understand why I am currently 121% long the stock market. I encourage you to keep a bullish posture as well.
Best,

[alcon]

Creo q ya os Comente ayer en Otro puesto de su postura, pero bueno, os dejo su reportero Último de Hace Unas horas ...


 121% larga y feliz

 Las acciones siguen rebotando alrededor en un rango de entre 1.973 (promedio móvil de 200 días) y el récord de 2093. Esto ha estado en vigor durante los últimos dos meses. Y es cierto que todos los movimientos dentro de ese rango es nada más que ruido. Lo que importa es cuando rompemos por encima o por debajo.

 Normalmente, estos períodos consolidación lateral terminan con la rúbrica del mercado en la misma dirección que iba antes de la gama comenzó la acción unida. En este caso, eso sería para continuar subiendo a nuevos máximos por encima de 2093. Y eso es lo que estoy esperando.

 Reity, lo que causaría que rompamos por debajo de la de 200 días en 1973?

 Como nos encontramos en octubre, que se descomponen puede pasar por ninguna razón en absoluto. Con mucho gusto ese lío limpiaban rápidamente con nuevos máximos pronto en la mano. Pero por lo general necesita una racha de malas noticias para hacer que la gente cuestiona las perspectivas de la economía.

 Sí, los datos económicos recientes han sido más ligeros que los últimos meses. Sin embargo, todos debemos saber que + 5.4% del PIB de los últimos dos trimestres no estaba destinada a durar. Así que volviendo al crecimiento 2,5-3% es más la norma para la economía de Estados Unidos y que es lo que los indicadores apuntan a delante. Eso debería ser lo suficientemente bueno para nosotros para explorar nuevos máximos por encima de 2100 y hasta 2200 a finales de este año.

 Si se suma todo y entiendes por qué estoy en la actualidad 121% durante mucho tiempo el mercado de valores. Os animo a mantener una postura alcista también.
 Best,

[kostarof]

gracias a ambos por las aportaciones

[H. LEIN]

Sigue comentando más de los mismo .... el de hace unos minutos de hoy mismo ...  

Best Week of Weak Year

Don't let the modest declines on Friday blind you from the facts. Stocks enjoyed their best week of the new year with a healthy 3% gain.

The oddity was why stocks declined even though the employment report surprised mightily to the upside. Not only were the January job gains 10% above expectations, even better, 147,000 jobs were added to the already strong November and December readings.

The problem for some investors is the belief that the healthier the employment picture, the sooner the Fed will raise rates. Once again I point out that the stock market typically moves higher for 2-3 years after the Fed raises rates.

Next week has no serious catalysts on the calendar and the heart of earnings season is already past. My guess is that we get up towards the old highs, but don't have enough gas in the tank to get above 2100 just yet. So we consolidate under for a while until investors are rested and ready to leap over that modest hurdle.
Best,

[H. LEIN]

Hoy , me parece a mi q. da por hecho q. en Europa habrá turbulencias con Grecia, y prácticamente dice q eso le vendrá bien a USA q. es ahora mismo, con datos,  la economía fuerte ...   otra forma de verlo ... jejejeje

Refresher Course

Stocks fell Monday in the US out of sympathy with Europe wrestling with Greek debt. Let me provide a desperately needed refresher course on why most problems in Europe should be of no concern to US investors.

EU GDP in 2013 was +0.1%. Anemic growth for sure, but US GDP ratcheted up +1.9% while the S&P 500 soared +32%. Clearly the US was immune to Europe's economic disease.

The final tally for EU GDP in 2014 is not yet in the books. But through the first 3 quarters they revved up to +0.2% growth. Yet as we know the US grew at a much healthier +2.5% pace last year with the S&P 500 up another +13.7%.

You do not need to be an economist or math wizard to appreciate that the recent troubles in Europe should have no ill effect on US stocks. And if anything, perhaps weakness there will drive money to healthier markets like in the States.
Best,

[alcon]

gracias