By S. Reity ..... q. sigue, como ya es habitual ... alcista ...

[H. LEIN]

Time is Running Out

Stocks fell Tuesday for only the second time in the last nine sessions. Hardly anything worth fretting about. The only thing of interest is that it does lower the odds of touching 2100 before time runs out this year.

Of greater consequence were two strong economic reports on the US consumer. First was the Redbook weekly retail sales report showing a robust +5.4% increase year over year. Note we started the year at a modest +2% growth in retail sales. It has steadily improved since then leading to this impressive reading north of 5%.

Redbook was followed up by another increase in Consumer Confidence from 88.7 to 92.6. This too is a marked increase from the readings in the 70's and low 80's from a year ago.

It is hard not to appreciate the improved strength of the consumer. And hopefully we get good word from the manufacturing sector on Friday to have the right conditions for continued stock price appreciation in the short run.

In the long run, you should expect the bull market to be intact until a recession looms on the horizon or stocks become overvalued. Neither is a real concern at this time. So keep riding the bull.
Best,

[chaval]

Cuidado , que los bulls tambien suelen dar cornadas.

Por eso, hay que estar entrenado para correr con los bulls, como hacen en San Fermin.

[H. LEIN]

Primer día del año nuevo ... y sigue  ..... parecido ,,,,

Are You Prepared for 2015?

Typically holiday trading sessions have an upward bias. Yet this time around investors felt like taking some chips off the table in the waning days of 2014. In total stocks lost -1.5% over the last two sessions.

Pulling back to the bigger picture the S&P 500 still provided investors with a total return of +13.7% this past year. Folks only achieved those gains if they were not thrown off the bull during the major correction in October or during the many consolidations and pullbacks throughout this volatile year.

Looking forward, there is no logical reason to suspect the bull market has run out of gas. That is mainly because economic data in the US is strong while Treasury rates are shockingly low making stocks attractive by comparison.

In my " 2015 Stock Market Outlook ", I predicted that 2300 is in the cards for the coming year. And 2400 is possible if all the stars align. The first hurdle in our way is the slate of early January economic reports including ISM Mfg, ISM Services, ADP & Government Employment. Once cleared, then Q4 earnings season begins.

Most leading indicators say there is nothing to worry about in these announcements. If true, then it should pave the way for us to head north of 2100 with the rest of the gains being unveiled as the year progresses.

Or to put it another way... Stay strong and stay long!


Best,

[chaval]

Para 2015

SP en 2300-2400

¿quién da más?

[Rober]

Para 2015

SP en 2300-2400

¿quién da más?

No estaría nada mal

[fantalimon]

Para 2015

SP en 2300-2400

¿quién da más?

De momento algunos decían que 2100 o 2180 en 2014 y no se dió... Sigo sin creerme que el SP irá a esos valores (2300-2400 o 3000  ; por poner una cifra absurda) en 2015. Es más... más de uno se pueden llevar una sorpresa.

[sickboy]

De momento algunos decían que 2100 o 2180 en 2014 y no se dió... Sigo sin creerme que el SP irá a esos valores (2300-2400 o 3000  ; por poner una cifra absurda) en 2015. Es más... más de uno se pueden llevar una sorpresa.

Al final la mayoría es siempre la que suele llevarse una sorpresa...así funciona este "juego"
A ver si reaccionamos bien a las olas y no nos limpian mucho en el camino
Think outside the box

[fantalimon]

Parece que los 3.000 los dejarán para el próximo siglo, este ya se han pasado de frenada...

[H. LEIN]

el comentario de hoy .....  sigue en sus trece ... jejeje ..

Here's the Good News

Tuesday's action was very typical for a session right after a massive sell off like Monday. That is where investors get rattled by the violent decline of stocks. So they say to themselves "I will sell on the next bounce in price" . And just like clockwork investors took advantage of the Tuesday morning bounce to get back in a selling mood.

Here's the good news. These are signs of a bottoming process as sellers run out of steam allowing buyers to take the upper hand.

Yes, we might quickly flush down to the 200 day moving average at 1960 to scare everyone silly. The key is to understand that economic data still points to +3% growth and now bond rates are lower. Thus stocks are that much more attractive on valuation basis.

[H. LEIN]

Como el mercado le ha vuelto a dar  la razón, hoy está .... chisposo !! ....

Why Did Stocks Bounce?

Stocks fell nearly 5% from the recent peak to the mid-day low on Tuesday. So it was nice to get some bullishness back into the mix Wednesday with the S&P up +1.16%.

Those looking for a catalyst could say that the better than expected ADP Employment report was the reason. Or the Fed Minutes showing that they will be sitting on their hands a good while longer before raising rates. But really it is much easier than that.

Plain and simple, we are still in the midst of a long term bull market. And we will remain on the bull path until a recession appears on the horizon or stock valuations get bubblicious. Neither is a real concern at this stage allowing stocks to charge forward. So congrats to all those that didn’t falter in the face of this 5% pullback.

Now what to do?

Just because it is still a bull market doesn't mean it's been easy making money with stocks. First you have to battle the volatility. Second, you have to pick the right group of stocks to outperform.

Kudos to you if you are navigating this rocky terrain to the benefit or your portfolio. However, most of you probably aren't in that camp and are falling short of the mark.

They say the definition of the insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. So if your current strategies aren't working, then consider it a healthy New Year's resolution to try something new.

[H. LEIN]

El de hoy ....  sigue optimista pese a lo pesimista q. se ve el mundo con los últimos sucesos ....

Cold Weather. Hot Stocks.

Much of the US is engulfed in a serious winter storm. In fact, here in my native Chicago we have endured wind chills of -40 degrees. Gladly the continued warmth from stock profits is making it an enjoyable time of the year.

In reality this hefty two day bounce just makes up for the lost ground bringing us back to breakeven on the year. So what happens next is important.

The first hurdle is the Government Employment Situation this morning. The steadiness of weekly Jobless Claims, and a positive showing for ADP Employment Wednesday, are leading indicators that all should be well here.

Next up is earnings season, which kicks off Tuesday after hours with Alcoa. The strength of recent economic data gives us plenty of confidence that all should be well with corporate earnings.

The stars seem aligned for making new highs above 2100 before January is out.
Best,

[nut]

El de hoy ....  sigue optimista pese a lo pesimista q. se ve el mundo con los últimos sucesos ....

Cold Weather. Hot Stocks.

Much of the US is engulfed in a serious winter storm. In fact, here in my native Chicago we have endured wind chills of -40 degrees. Gladly the continued warmth from stock profits is making it an enjoyable time of the year.

In reality this hefty two day bounce just makes up for the lost ground bringing us back to breakeven on the year. So what happens next is important.

The first hurdle is the Government Employment Situation this morning. The steadiness of weekly Jobless Claims, and a positive showing for ADP Employment Wednesday, are leading indicators that all should be well here.

Next up is earnings season, which kicks off Tuesday after hours with Alcoa. The strength of recent economic data gives us plenty of confidence that all should be well with corporate earnings.

The stars seem aligned for making new highs above 2100 before January is out.
Best,

Estoy ya harta del Reity de los ..... y si hubiera seguido bajando se la comen con patatas los largos,como no ha sido así...

[fantalimon]

^^;

Como ya dijimos algunos a estos niveles el dinero estaba del lado corto... podía seguir subiendo pero el riesgo que se asumía era desmesurado...

Si las impresoras solventarán las crisis estas no habrían existido jamás.