No recuerdo (he borrado los MP) quién me pidió q. pusiera los comentarios de Reity de esta semana ,,,, a Reity aún le dura la resaca del concierto de Maná del finde ... jejeje ... así q. hoy sigue de días libres , pero pongo el hoy de K. Cook , q tpco es "manco" ....
The Most Wonderful Time of the Year
The next 20+ trading days are historically some of the most bullish. Typical drivers are obvious, as fund managers dress the windows of their portfolios and those who were too bearish and largely missed the buying opportunities in the classic autumn swoon continue to scramble for exposure to the bull.
But last December saw a scary 5% plunge in just a week after the monster rally of October-November.
And many investors continue to stumble in the dark about what the holiday shopping season will look like after major warnings across the retail spectrum, from Walmart to Macy's.
I am focused on one key barometer: the jungle that will consume them all, otherwise known as Amazon.com. The Darth Vader (or Obi-Wan depending on your perspective) of retail once again changed the rules last week by starting Black Friday a week early.
I'm looking forward to seeing how they take over the universe of shopping this week, and this decade.
Is Optimism on Your Calendar?
Just as you were making plans for a casual week of family gatherings (and shopping) while the bull market did his thing, we have a slew of big reports bound to add some volatility...
Monday: Existing Home Sales 10 ET
Tuesday: Q3 GDP (2nd look) 8:30 ET, Consumer Confidence 10 ET, State Street Investor Confidence 10 ET
Wednesday: Durable Goods 8:30 ET, Personal Income & Spending 8:30 ET, New Home Sales 10 ET
In late September, on the day when Carl Icahn helped put a bottom in markets with his scary video sermon "Danger Ahead," I highlighted that those 2 confidence surveys we get tomorrow -- one from consumers, the other from institutional investors -- told a much more optimistic story about the economy and markets.
As I said at the time, "Confidence is, and always will be, the most important currency of bull markets. Even if Uncle Carl has lost some of his."
I'm betting that underlying optimism makes all 2-4% dips still very buyable.
Best,
