Hoy dejo un comentario de T. Ryniec .... al q. llaman " el tipo tranquilo" .... da mucha importancia al crude oil como canalizador de tendencia para todo ... asi como a los datos macro ...
A New Month But Volatility Continues
February trading began much the same way it was for most of January with high volatility and big swings.
On Monday, the key ISM for Manufacturing data for January showed a second consecutive monthly decline in the index to 53.5%. This was the lowest in the last year and spurred the bears to sell off stocks early in the session. However, it's still above contraction, which is at 50. There have been many pullbacks in this index over the past 7 years so it is not something to get overly alarmed by. Out of the 18 industries surveyed, 14 of them still saw growth in January.
But this ISM report was another data point that nervous investors could look at to justify their slowdown fears.
So why did stocks rally hard into the close of the session if the data wasn't that great?
Crude powered higher for the second straight session, adding another 3% onto Friday's big 8% surge. Suddenly, WTI is looking at $50 a barrel again. Whenever crude moves higher, investors are soothed and more times than not have moved back into stocks.
But this week should be full of surprises. Wall Street will be eying a lot of economic data and over 650 earnings reports, including many from key S&P 500 companies.
• On Wednesday, it'll be the ISM for Non-Manufacturing. This is the service sector, which makes up 80% of the economy. A lot of traders will be watching this data closely to see if the drop in oil prices has given it a boost.
• Then, on Friday, we'll get the all-important January non-farm payrolls report. There's a lot riding on the monthly jobs numbers now, especially with the slowdown in the oil patch. Will oil industry layoffs start showing up in the data? Stay tuned.
What We Know: 2015 is shaping up to be a very different market than 2014. Obviously, it's much more volatile. But it's also a stock picker's market. Look for opportunities among the volatility and use the Zacks Rank to guide you towards the companies with the best 2015 outlooks.
Best,
