Hoy da otro argumento más para su postura de sesgo bajista para próximas semanas ... los bonos .... ahí os lo dejo ...
Why Are Stock Investors Deaf?
Stock investors are casting a deaf ear to the screams of bond investors. Yes, stocks are climbing higher as bond traders are preparing for the worst.
Historically the bond market has the better track record of predicting the future. And right now they are gearing up for the increased likelihood of recession. Here is the proof:
Recent short term Treasury bill auctions have ended with investors accepting a 0% rate of return. Why would any investor do that? Because they are concerned about losing money in other places like the stock market. So just getting their money back is good enough.
As for long term Treasury bonds like the 10 year, the rate is back down to 2%. This is likely due to increased concerns of a recession as they often come with low inflation or even outright deflation. Therefore they are willing to except a paltry 2% rate in return.
Lastly, a recent study by JP Morgan says that the recent rise in junk bond rates equates to a 42% risk of recession in the next 12 months.
To be fair, bond investors aren't always right. This is certainly a case where we all hope that the recent buoyancy for stocks proves to be the better predictor of what lies ahead.
