By S. Reity ..... q. sigue, como ya es habitual ... alcista ...

[H. LEIN]

A November to Remember

The 10% drop in October was much scarier to investors than any Halloween costume. So gladly as we flipped the page on the calendar, we also flipped the page on the mood for investors.

Even with the weak session on Friday the S&P still gained a respectable +2.5% for the month. This has pushed up the year to date total into double digit territory for the third year in a row.

The days ahead will be an important test for stocks as we get served up key economic data on manufacturing, services, employment and the strength of the consumer (as displayed in early holiday shopping metrics). If all goes well, then new highs will be under the Christmas tree once again.

Most signs point to more good times ahead. I will let you know when there is truly something to worry about.
Best,

[H. LEIN]

Cyber Sales Saves Stocks

Healthy Cyber Monday results helped quell some of Monday's angst about the holiday shopping season. Plus the weekly Redbook sales report showed a +4.8% gain year over year for the entire week. This got investors back in a bullish mood Tuesday (I told ya not to worry).

Now there are bigger tests ahead with the upcoming slate of economic reports. This starts today with ADP Employment and ISM Services followed by Government Employment Situation on Friday.

The jobs numbers are truly the key as ISM Services is rarely a big market mover by itself. What investors want to see is continued improvements in employment as it portends well for increased income and spending in the months ahead. This would be a green flag waving stocks up to 2100 in coming days.
Best,

[kostarof]

mil gracias lein

[viguoter maifren]

Gracias por mantenernos al día.
Entiendo que este hombre tiene más posibilidades de acertar si está a favor de tendencia, pero ¿habrá que ver a un ser humano que no falla??, cagontoloquesemeneayloquenosemeneatambien, jeejejeeje.
Gracias again...

[H. LEIN]

Path to Record Highs All Clear?

Coming into this week I stated that we had 4 key economic reports in the path of reaching 2100 for the first time. Monday brought ISM Manufacturing which came through in stellar fashion. Wednesday ushered in the next two challenges.

ADP Employment was a smidge light of expectations at 208,000 jobs added. But still a solid showing which leads to a continued lowering of the unemployment rate. Next was a splendiferous read for ISM Services at 59.3, which is well above the 57.1 from last month. Plus the forward looking New Orders component ratcheted up to 61.4. Looks like another +3-4% GDP report is on the way for Q4.

The good news on these first reports allowed stocks to make a new all-time high on Wednesday. And now we are only about 1% away from reaching 2100. The only thing in our way is the Government Employment Situation announcement on Friday morning. Given what appeared in the competitive ADP Employment report, then odds are good that 2100 will soon be a reality.

Does that mean that every stock will go up? Heck no!
Prudent stock selection is definitely the key as the easy money has already been made in this 5+ year bull market.

[perryns]

Usa no ha tenido una corrección importante desde el 2011.. Los tipos tan bajos pueden llevar a una nueva burbuja si el mercado alcista se les va de las manos..

Yo esperaba corrección para estos primeros días de diciembre, pero puede que la dejen para inicios de año..

Hoy el dolar baja con lo cual tienen una excusa para subir, pero la tendencia alcista del dolar tb es muy importante y ha sumado rentabilidad a los máximos históricos en los índices americanos..

Creo q nos espera algún nuevo susto para el 2015

Saludos

[H. LEIN]

Who Won the Tug-of-War?

Those rooting for the US economy could not be more thrilled with the 321,000 jobs added in the November Government Employment Situation report. That is 40% above expectations.

You would think this sparkling announcement would lift stocks to a new high at 2100 with the greatest of ease. And yet the S&P barely registered any gains Friday. Why?

Because those who are afraid of the Fed raising rates thought this report was too hot thus speeding up the timetable for the Fed tapping on the brakes. Bond investors also took it as a memo to drive up rates.

The same tug-of-war took place when the Fed started talking about the removal of the $85 billion per month QE3 bond buying program. Over time the winners were those investors who realized the bullishness of economic improvement outweighed the bearishness of less Fed involvement. The same should prove true this time around.

Putting it altogether, the strength on display this past week from manufacturing, services, retail and now employment says the long term bull market is most certainly here to stay.
Best,

[H. LEIN]

Estoy ahora en una sesión online con la gente de Scottrade Miami, ....  Matras  .... S. Joobs ....  entre otros ....   bien, están comentando  y casi llegando a un consenso de un punto en donde dicen q. los us index pueden tener problemas de continuidad en la subida ya q. comentan  q. hay varios sistemas de gestores de trading con posiciones de venta en la zona 18.200 de Dow .... asi q. esa cifra (cercana ya ) la están manejando como zona de giro de descanso, de un recorte no más allá de la zona 17.400 ....    eso dicen y así os lo dejo ....

[Rober]

Thank you!  Viene muy bien tener unas referencias porque al estar el mercado americano tan alto, da miedo.

[H. LEIN]

Winners and Losers

On a global basis the movement of oil prices is a zero sum game. For every importer nation that saves billions from lower prices there is an exporting counterpart who is losing that same money.

However, if you dig down a bit more you actually find there is a net upside to these lower oil prices. And that is to discover that most of the largest economies are net importers. So yes, Saudi Arabia is set to lose $118 billion in revenue this year. But the US is at +$90 billion followed by...

+$77 billion for China

+$60 billion for Japan

+$34 billion for India

+$93 billion for the 5 largest European nations

This is essentially a big stimulus to the key economic regions of the globe causing economists to boost their growth projections for world GDP. This benefit was not on display in lower stock prices Monday...but is certainly another feather in the cap for the bull story coming into 2015.
Best,

[kostarof]

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[Los Sueños]

Winners and Losers

On a global basis the movement of oil prices is a zero sum game. For every importer nation that saves billions from lower prices there is an exporting counterpart who is losing that same money.

However, if you dig down a bit more you actually find there is a net upside to these lower oil prices. And that is to discover that most of the largest economies are net importers. So yes, Saudi Arabia is set to lose $118 billion in revenue this year. But the US is at +$90 billion followed by...

+$77 billion for China

+$60 billion for Japan

+$34 billion for India

+$93 billion for the 5 largest European nations

This is essentially a big stimulus to the key economic regions of the globe causing economists to boost their growth projections for world GDP. This benefit was not on display in lower stock prices Monday...but is certainly another feather in the cap for the bull story coming into 2015.
Best,

Pues yo no lo veo así.

Porque toda la pasta que tienen los productores de petróleo se la gastan. Y además en un sistema que se basa en la deuda esto son menos pasivos y por reflejo menos activos.

Es igual que el déficit de los países europeos. Menos déficit menos crecimiento.

[H. LEIN]

Pues Reity sigue erre q. erre .... pese a q. los indicadores marcan síntomas de agotamiento e incluso destellos de giro, él sigue con su espíritu de inmutable alcista ..... esto comenta hoy ...

International Hangover

International markets tumbled Tuesday on weak news out of China and Greece. The interesting thing is that the same folks who trade these international markets are also the same ones who kick off pre-market activity in the US. So the bad mood from abroad often infects the early results for the US market. What you might call an "international hangover".

However, once these worldwide investors went off to sleep the US centric players took control. And as the big red arrows flashed on their screens they did not see fear…they saw a buying opportunity.

That is because most of them realized that America has been an economic island unto itself the past several years. This is proven by our steadily improving growth while most other regions have endured slowdowns. As such there was no pressing need for US stocks to go down just because the rest of the world had an off day. This pushed stocks higher into the close.

There is still time for Santa to deliver new highs this year around 2100. I believe the odds for that outcome are greater than getting a lump of coal for Christmas.
Best,

[Los Sueños]

Efectivamente muy interesante.

USA es una isla y la gente se ha dado cuenta.

Es un invento.

Hasta Santa Claus no existe pero se lo inventan.

[viguoter maifren]

Pues tendrá razón, pero que yo no seré el que se ponga largo, es que no aprendo. Aguanto cortos a pesar de que no cae.