De Eric Peters, CIO de One River Asset Management (o sea que gestiona tela ajena)
If we’d assembled 100 investors, economists, strategists and policy-makers on October 31st and told them Trump would be President, where would they have said stocks would be on April 1st? The CIOs responded to my question, “Down between 10%-15%.” And if we then showed them Trump’s Twitter feed for the last week of March, replete with Russian intrigue, legislative failure, and environmental overturns, what would they have then said? The CIOs laughed, “Down 25%-35%.”
So then why is the S&P 500 up 11% from Halloween?
So if we told our esteemed group of investors, economists, strategists and policy makers on March 21st - two days before the vote to repeal Obamacare – that the Freedom Caucus would prevail, Trump would fail, and the vote wouldn’t even take place, where would they have said stocks would be on April 1st? “Down between 5%-10%,” answered the CIOs.
So then why is the S&P 500 up 0.8%? They shrugged.
Then I asked, how often this kind of odd disconnect between expected price action and actual outcome leads to higher prices?
“Almost always.”